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A novel and simple formula to predict treatment success in chronic hepatitis C

The predictive potential was very high, as judged by area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (AUC) analysis, which was more than 0.8 from week 4. In particular, the validity at week 24 was more than 0.85 of AUC. The positive predictive value (PPV) of the formula were better at weeks 12 and 24 than the prediction with viral kinetics, and the negative predictive value (NPV) of the formulae were better at weeks 4 and 12. Evaluation of the formulae using data from the test patients revealed a very high AUC value of more than 0.85. These results suggest that formulae based on simple clinical data are superior to prediction by viral kinetics.